Capitol Gains

Presidential candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama have been spending the remaining moments of their campaigns in swing states.  Recently, Republican candidate Mitt Romney  was campaigning in Ohio and later in Pennsylvania.  Obama visited Milwaukee Wisconsin before heading over to Ohio.  There are 10 electoral votes at stake in Wisconsin and 18 in Ohio.  Battleground states also include Virginia with 13 electoral votes and Florida with 29.  There are also close Senate races in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

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James Sutliff

Wisconsin has good food and great people but it isn’t across the street.  The Scott Walker recall election had supporters from across the country visiting the swing state in early June.  The November election will not have nearly as many out-of-state supporters redeeming their frequent flier miles.

The US Senate race between Tommy Thompson and Tammy Baldwin is still too close to call.  A Rasmussen Reports poll had Thompson ahead by only 2 percentage points.  A Thompson victory would need a high voter turnout from suburban Milwaukee counties.  Thompson may also benefit from a strong turnout of Catholic voters.

Currently, Obama is ahead in most polls and is likely to win the state.  Obama leads Romney by 3% and 6% in two recent NBC/WSJ/Marist polls.

Two closely watched Congressional races are in the 7th and 8th districts.  Republicans are expected to win both contests on Tuesday.  Redistricting made the 7th district slightly more Republican and the 8th district covers northeastern Wisconsin which is most likely to vote Republican.

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Jim Sutliff

Ohio has 18 electoral votes at stake in the Presidential election.  Recent polling data indicates that Obama has a slight lead over Romney.  A CNN poll has Obama ahead by 4 percentage points and a Survey USA poll has Obama leading by 3 points.  Three counties that are closely watched are Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton.  In 2004, Bush won Hamliton county by over 20,000 votes but lost Franklin by almost 50,000 votes and Cuyahoga by over 226,000 votes.  In 2008, McCain lost Hamilton by almost 30,000 votes, Franklin by over 115,000 votes, and Cuyahoga by over 250,000 votes. Bush won Ohio in 2004 and Obama won the state in 2008. One of the keys to a Republican victory in 2012 is a high voter turnout from Santorum strongholds in eastern Ohio.

In the US Senate contest, Brown is leading in recent polls. A Rasmussen Reports poll has Brown leading by 4 percentage points and a CBS News/Quinnipiac poll has Brown ahead by 9 points.  Republicans need 51 seats to take control of the US Senate if Obama wins the Presidential election.

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Jim Sutliff